Overview of Mosaic Company (Stock Symbol: MOS)
The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) is a leading global producer of phosphate and potash crop nutrients, essential for agriculture and food production. It operates mines in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Peru, and distributes fertilizers primarily in North and South America. As of November 25, 2025, MOS stock trades around $24.20 (based on recent closing prices), with a market cap of approximately $7.5 billion. The company benefits from structural tailwinds in the fertilizer industry, including rising global food demand and supply constraints, but faces cyclical risks from commodity prices. Below, I outline the key investment merits, supported by recent financials, analyst views, and market dynamics.
Key Investment Merits
Mosaic presents a compelling case for value-oriented investors, particularly those seeking exposure to agriculture and commodities with income potential. Here’s a breakdown:1. Attractive Valuation and Undervaluation Potential
- MOS trades at a low trailing P/E ratio of 6.11 and forward P/E of 8.06, well below the materials sector average (around 15-20x), signaling undervaluation relative to earnings power.
- Price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.86 is below the industry average of 0.93, indicating the stock is priced below its net asset value.
- Intrinsic value models suggest the stock is undervalued by about 21%, with potential for 30-40% upside to analyst targets (average $34.33, high of $43).
- Recent upgrades, such as Seeking Alpha’s shift to “Buy” on November 12, 2025, highlight improving fundamentals and a “significant recovery potential” after a 15-20% YTD decline.
2. Improving Operational Fundamentals and Cost Efficiencies
- Q3 2025 results showed net income of $411 million (up from a $162 million loss in Q3 2024) and adjusted EBITDA of $566 million, driven by higher potash prices and strong performance from its Brazilian subsidiary, Mosaic Fertilizantes (expected >$200 million EBITDA).
- Investments in asset reliability (e.g., plant turnarounds) completed in H2 2025 are set to boost production volumes (targeting 8 million tonnes in U.S. phosphates) and reduce costs, leading to “significant sequential improvement” in Q4.
- Balance sheet strengthened by a $900 million fixed-income raise in November 2025, enhancing financial flexibility amid potential margin pressures.
3. Favorable Industry Tailwinds and Market Positioning
- Global fertilizer markets remain tight due to limited new capacity, Chinese export restrictions on phosphates, and robust demand from key regions like India and Brazil (supported by government subsidies and rising food needs).
- As a top-tier producer with low-cost assets (e.g., Saskatchewan potash mines), Mosaic is well-positioned to capture pricing power in potash and phosphates, with analysts forecasting stable-to-higher volumes in 2026.
- Long-term growth from population-driven food demand and Mosaic’s biosciences segment (e.g., sustainable nutrient solutions) adds diversification potential.
4. Reliable Dividend Yield and Shareholder Returns
- Forward dividend yield of 3.73% ($0.88 annual payout, quarterly $0.22/share) provides steady income, with the November 17, 2025, declaration affirming commitment to distributions.
- Strong cash flow generation supports ongoing payouts, even in softer cycles, making it appealing for income-focused portfolios.
5. Positive Analyst and Institutional Sentiment
- Consensus rating: “Buy” from 14 analysts, with Goldman Sachs reiterating “Buy” on November 12, 2025 (target $33), citing Q3 positives despite lowered guidance.
- Hedge fund interest is rising, with MOS ranking among “12 best commodity stocks to buy now” due to its role in essential agriculture supply chains.
- Barclays maintained “Overweight” on November 13, 2025 (target $35), emphasizing global supply-demand imbalances.
| Metric | Value (as of Nov 2025) | Industry Comparison | Implication for Investors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $7.5B | Mid-cap in materials | Accessible for diversified portfolios |
| Trailing P/E | 6.11 | Below sector avg (15x) | Value buy with earnings growth potential |
| Forward P/E | 8.06 | Discounted | Room for multiple expansion |
| EPS (TTM) | $3.86 | Up from prior year | Profit recovery underway |
| Dividend Yield | 3.73% | Above sector avg (2.5%) | Attractive income stream |
| Debt/Equity | 37.13% | Manageable | Low leverage supports stability |
| Analyst Target | $34.33 (avg) | +42% from $24.20 | Consensus upside |
Considerations
While merits are strong, note cyclical risks: softer U.S. phosphate demand and potential oversupply could pressure near-term prices. However, MOS’s cost discipline and global footprint mitigate these. For long-term holders (3-5 years), the stock aligns with themes of food security and commodity recovery. Always consult a financial advisor for personalized advice.
The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) and Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE: NTR) are both leading players in the global fertilizers industry, focusing on essential crop nutrients amid rising food demand and supply constraints. Mosaic specializes in phosphate and potash production, with a streamlined focus on manufacturing and distribution in North and South America. Nutrien, formed from the 2018 merger of PotashCorp and Agrium, offers a broader portfolio including nitrogen fertilizers, retail ag services, and digital farming solutions, providing greater diversification but also exposure to volatile nitrogen prices tied to natural gas costs.As of November 25, 2025, MOS trades around $24.20 (down ~37% YTD), while NTR trades around $56.10 (down ~10% YTD). Both benefit from industry tailwinds like tight potash/phosphate supply and demand from Brazil/India, but MOS appears more undervalued, while NTR offers scale and stability. Below is a detailed comparison.Business Operations Comparison
| Aspect | Mosaic (MOS) | Nutrien (NTR) |
|---|---|---|
| Core Products | Phosphate (DAP/MAP) and potash; limited nitrogen exposure. | Phosphate, potash, nitrogen (urea/ammonia); plus crop protection and seeds. |
| Segments | Phosphates (U.S./Brazil), Potash (Canada/U.S.), Mosaic Fertilizantes (Brazil). | Nutrients (80% of revenue), Retail (ag services/digital tools). |
| Geographic Focus | North/South America; ~50% sales in Brazil. | Global, with strong North America retail (~20% revenue); potash leader in Canada. |
| Production Capacity | ~8M tonnes phosphates, 9M tonnes potash annually. | ~18M tonnes potash (expanding to 18M by 2030), plus nitrogen facilities. |
| Key Strengths | Low-cost assets, cost efficiencies post-turnarounds; resilient to gas prices. | Diversification via retail buffers cycles; $200M+ cost savings in 2025. |
| Challenges | Cyclical phosphate demand in U.S.; narrower product focus. | Nitrogen volatility from energy costs; recent goodwill impairments. |
Nutrien’s integrated model (production + retail) provides a hedge against price swings, but Mosaic’s focus yields higher margins in potash/phosphate booms.Financial Metrics ComparisonData as of September 30, 2025 (TTM unless noted).
| Metric | Mosaic (MOS) | Nutrien (NTR) | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $7.67B | $27.13B | NTR’s scale offers liquidity; MOS more nimble. |
| Revenue (TTM) | $11.89B | $25.67B | NTR ~2x larger, driven by nitrogen/retail. |
| Net Income (TTM) | $1.23B | $1.81B | NTR edges out despite higher revenue, better efficiency. |
| EPS (TTM) | $3.86 | $3.71 | MOS higher per share; undervalued earnings. |
| Trailing P/E | 6.26 | 15.15 | MOS deeply discounted vs. sector (~12x). |
| Forward P/E | 8.06 | 11.52 | MOS implies stronger EPS growth. |
| PEG Ratio (5Y Expected) | 0.82 | N/A | MOS attractive for growth-adjusted value. |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 0.65 | 1.03 | MOS cheaper on sales. |
| Price/Book | 0.60 | 1.08 | MOS trades below book value. |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.15 | 7.24 | MOS more undervalued on cash earnings. |
| Total Debt | $4.8B | $14.18B | NTR higher leverage but strong cash flows mitigate. |
| Op. Cash Flow (TTM) | $1.1B | $4.15B | NTR generates more absolute cash. |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $192M | $1.91B | NTR superior for returns/buybacks. |
| Beta (5Y) | 0.94 | 1.15 | MOS less volatile, better for risk-averse. |
| ROE (TTM) | ~9.5% | ~6.8% | MOS higher returns on equity. |
MOS demonstrates superior valuation metrics, trading at a ~40% discount to NTR on forward earnings, reflecting market concerns over U.S. phosphate softness. NTR’s larger scale supports robust cash flows, funding expansions like potash capacity growth.Growth and Earnings Outlook
| Metric (2025 Consensus) | Mosaic (MOS) | Nutrien (NTR) | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Growth (YoY) | +16.8% | +3.4% | MOS faster ramp-up from pricing/volume gains. |
| EPS Growth (YoY) | +60.1% | +26.2% | MOS estimates revised higher; Q4 improvements expected. |
| 2026 EPS Growth | ~15-20% | ~10-15% | Both benefit from global demand; MOS more leveraged to recovery. |
EPS revisions for both are positive over the past 60 days, driven by healthy farm incomes and planted acres. MOS’s outperformance ties to Brazilian strength and cost cuts; NTR’s to retail resilience.Dividend and Shareholder Returns
| Metric | Mosaic (MOS) | Nutrien (NTR) | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.73% ($0.88/share) | 3.87% ($2.12/share) | Comparable income; NTR slightly higher. |
| Payout Ratio | 22.5% | 58.6% | MOS more sustainable; room for hikes. |
| 5Y Dividend Growth | 41.6% annualized | ~5-7% | MOS aggressive growth history. |
| Share Buybacks | Active; $500M+ in 2025 | Committed; supports amid impairments. | Both prioritize returns. |
MOS’s low payout enables faster dividend acceleration, appealing for income growth. NTR’s higher absolute payout suits yield seekers.Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
| Aspect | Mosaic (MOS) | Nutrien (NTR) |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus Rating | Moderate Buy (14 analysts) | Hold (17-27 analysts) |
| Avg. Price Target | $33.20 (+37% upside) | $63.59 (+13% upside) |
| High/Low Target | $46 / $27 | $85 / $50 |
| Recent Notes | UBS Buy $46; JPM $37 (raised) | Jefferies Hold $66; RBC Buy $61 |
Analysts favor MOS for value and EPS momentum, with Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) for both but MOS edging on revisions. Correlation between stocks is moderate (0.42), allowing diversification.Investment Merits and Risks
- MOS Merits: Deeper value (P/E <7x), explosive EPS growth, low beta for stability, and dividend upside. Ideal for value hunters betting on fertilizer recovery.
- NTR Merits: Scale/diversification reduces cycle risks, superior cash flow for reinvestment, and retail buffer. Suited for balanced growth portfolios.
- Shared Tailwinds: Global nutrient demand (e.g., India subsidies), supply tightness; both Zacks #1 ranked.
- Risks: Commodity volatility, weather/farm economics; MOS more exposed to U.S. softness, NTR to energy costs. Correlation (0.42) limits hedging.
Overall, MOS holds a slight edge for undervalued upside potential in 2025-2026, per analyst views, but NTR’s breadth makes it safer for long-term holds. Consider blending for agriculture exposure. Consult a financial advisor for suitability.
